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The_Carpathia
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 Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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In this article...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,380324,00.html
....OPEC said that Iran can set an unlimited price in the US for the
price of Gas, since it contributes so much of the world's supply of
oil. This confirms that we MUST get ourselves off our dependence on
foreign oil. While hybrid cars are a step in the right direction,
they will run off of some gas, and it will take many decades to get
the nation converted. What will we do in the mean time? The ONLY
solution for removing us from foreign oil is to start drilling in the
US for more oil. People have to start asking themselves what is more
important, preserving unused land from an extremely low risk for oil
pollution (with new safeguards, it's highly unlikely...remember the
oil wells that were destroyed with Katrina...where's the ecological
nightmare) or US jobs and livable travel expenses.
Kenneth Clifton
christiansuperhero.com |
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Cary Kittrell
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:13 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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In article <2596c29b-d6b8-4c8b-ac5f-8862f9dc3ee4@k30g2000hse.googlegroups.com> The_Carpathia <writingken@yahoo.com> writes:
And there's that good old untrammeled capitalism in action for you.
| Quote: |
since it contributes so much of the world's supply of
oil. This confirms that we MUST get ourselves off our dependence on
foreign oil. While hybrid cars are a step in the right direction,
they will run off of some gas, and it will take many decades to get
the nation converted. What will we do in the mean time? The ONLY
solution for removing us from foreign oil is to start drilling in the
US for more oil.
|
How about alternate energy sources?
Why didn't we start sooner, as people have been warning
about "peak oil" for a long, long time now?
Here, without permission, is what Mark K. Bilbo, who pops
up here once in a while, wrote about the efficacy of
domestric drilling, in this case ANWR:
| Quote: |
Drilling in alaska won't make any fucking difference as it'll increase world
supply less than a percent.
|
Not even that much. ANWR is capable of 600 to 850K barrels per day at
its peak which would occur in about 2020 or so. At about 85 (ish)
barrels per day consumption for the world, a mere 1% increase in
consumption is 850K barrels per day. In the time it would take to drill
ANWR, bring it into production, then wait the five or so years for peak
production (no field peaks immediately, it takes 5 to 10 years to hit
peak production), the world shortfall (assuming only 1% per year which
is maybe half of what we've seen for years) will be ten times the
production capacity of ANWR.
Further, US domestic production peaked in 1970-71 and has been in
decline since. The North Sea is in decline. Possibly even Ghawar though
SA isn't talking (never mind that they're shipping less, they claim to
be "increasing" production).
If ANWR could magically be put into peak production today--maybe by some
time travel arrangement--oil prices would level off (not fall) for maybe
a year.
Our consumption decline recently (as we hit $4) was about 300K barrels
per day. China, at the same time, imported 400K per day more. A deficit
of 100K barrels per day. And that was just China.
Further, given the cost of dealing with ANWR, I doubt the project would
even be finished. It takes oil to get oil. The project would cost an
amazing amount of money. No infrastructure of any kind exists up there.
It would all have to be built. There isn't even any way to get the oil
down here. The Alaskan pipeline is leaking like a sieve these days and
falling apart due to BP neglect for several years.
Diesel is the most expensive fuel these days. Especially in Alaska at
$5.226 per gallon as of today according to AAA.
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/sbsavg.asp
Every bit of equipment has to be brought in, transportation is largely
by truck, pipelines take diesel to build (equipment doesn't run on
snow), and there's no reason diesel would go down during the project.
(While there is a Phil Gram authored "Enron loophole" that McBush helped
with that, if closed, could shut down speculators, the drop in oil is
estimated to be maybe a quarter or so. That is, it should be priced
about $100 per barrel right now rather than having run up to $135-140
range. Dropping back to that level, however, would increase demand and
we'd begin climbing again. I would expect $150 to $180 per barrel in
about two years after the bubble deflates.)
((Oh and for anybody who wants to sneer, I would like to point out I'm
on record in this newsgroup predicting some two years or so ago that
we'd be hitting $4 right before the 2008 election. I'm not talking out
of my ass, my whole investment strategy is energy and metals. I read. A
lot.))
The upshot being that diesel prices will continue to climb throughout
the ANWR project, potentially running the cost of the project to a point
it's no longer viable.
Which is one reason the majors pretty much turned their noses up at
ANWR. Why bother? Any existing reserves will only increase in value.
Spending that kind of money for such a small amount of oil wouldn't help
profits.
On the *other* hand, energy service companies would make a bundle (can
you say "Halliburton"?). Energy service companies which supply oil
companies are booming. The more drilling is money to them even if it's
nothing but a series of dry holes and abandoned projects.
What's going on is actually very simple and it has *nothing* to do with
increasing domestic supply.
Because the *truth* is, we peaked in 1970 and have been in decline for
38 years.
End. Of. Story. |
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eldorado
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:57 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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On Fri, 11 Jul 2008, The_Carpathia wrote:
| Quote: |
In this article...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,380324,00.html
...OPEC said that Iran can set an unlimited price in the US for the
price of Gas, since it contributes so much of the world's supply of
oil. This confirms that we MUST get ourselves off our dependence on
foreign oil. While hybrid cars are a step in the right direction,
they will run off of some gas, and it will take many decades to get
the nation converted. What will we do in the mean time? The ONLY
solution for removing us from foreign oil is to start drilling in the
US for more oil. People have to start asking themselves what is more
important, preserving unused land from an extremely low risk for oil
pollution (with new safeguards, it's highly unlikely...remember the
oil wells that were destroyed with Katrina...where's the ecological
nightmare) or US jobs and livable travel expenses.
Kenneth Clifton
christiansuperhero.com
|
What would be wrong with having the oil companies use the forty million
acres of federal land
that is already leased to them versus giving the oil companies more land?
--
Randomly generated signature
Tell me what you need, and I'll tell you how to get along without it.
** Posted from http://www.teranews.com ** |
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John
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:38 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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On Jul 11, 1:01 pm, Bert Hyman <b...@iphouse.com> wrote:
| Quote: |
eldor...@io.com (eldorado) wrote innews:20080711095437.H29098@fnord.io.com:
What would be wrong with having the oil companies use the forty
million acres of federal land that is already leased to them
Are they not using it?
|
Actualy they are not.
| Quote: |
versus giving the oil companies more land?
You presumably meant "leasing them more land."
--
Bert Hyman | St. Paul, MN | b...@iphouse.com |
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Bob LeChevalier
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| Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:29 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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The_Carpathia <writingken@yahoo.com> wrote:
| Quote: |
In this article...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,380324,00.html
...OPEC said that Iran can set an unlimited price in the US for the
price of Gas, since it contributes so much of the world's supply of
oil. This confirms that we MUST get ourselves off our dependence on
foreign oil. While hybrid cars are a step in the right direction,
they will run off of some gas, and it will take many decades to get
the nation converted.
|
At $20 a gallon, I suspect it would happen REAL quick.
| Quote: |
What will we do in the mean time? The ONLY
solution for removing us from foreign oil is to start drilling in the
US for more oil.
|
No amount of drilling in the US will remove us from foreign oil.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
<United States proven oil reserves declined to a little less than 21
< billion barrels (3.3×109 m3) as of 2006 according to the Energy
< Information Administration, a 46% decline from the 39 billion barrels
< (6.2×109 m3) it had in 1970 when the huge Alaska North Slope (ANS)
< reserves were booked. With production of around 5 million barrels per
< day (790×103 m3/d) as of 2006, this represents about an 11 year
< supply of oil reserves at current rates of production.
<
<If the United States had to supply its entire demand of 21 million
< barrels per day (3.3×106 m3/d) without resorting to foreign imports,
< existing US reserves would last only three years at the current rate
< of consumption.
Since it would take more than 3 years to get any new explorational
drilling into full production (more like 20), US drilling has no
significant potential to solve the problem.
lojbab
Bob LeChevalier - artificial linguist; genealogist
lojbab@lojban.org Lojban language www.lojban.org |
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Bert Hyman
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 12:01 am Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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eldorado@io.com (eldorado) wrote in
news:20080711095437.H29098@fnord.io.com:
| Quote: |
What would be wrong with having the oil companies use the forty
million acres of federal land that is already leased to them
|
Are they not using it?
| Quote: |
versus giving the oil companies more land?
|
You presumably meant "leasing them more land."
--
Bert Hyman | St. Paul, MN | bert@iphouse.com |
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eldorado
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 12:42 am Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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On Fri, 11 Jul 2008, Bert Hyman wrote:
| Quote: |
eldorado@io.com (eldorado) wrote in
news:20080711095437.H29098@fnord.io.com:
What would be wrong with having the oil companies use the forty
million acres of federal land that is already leased to them
Are they not using it?
|
Correct, in fact the Democratic party is pushing for a "use it or lose it"
bill that would force oil companies to surrender oil and gas leases on
federal land that they are not using. House republicans blocked the bill.
The Democratic party has vowed to bring it up again.
| Quote: |
versus giving the oil companies more land?
You presumably meant "leasing them more land."
|
Correct. I apologize for any confusion.
--
Randomly generated signature
"Marriage is for fags." - overheard in a local pub
** Posted from http://www.teranews.com ** |
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Bert Hyman
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 12:49 am Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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eldorado@io.com (eldorado) wrote in
news:20080711143922.I38381@fnord.io.com:
| Quote: |
On Fri, 11 Jul 2008, Bert Hyman wrote:
eldorado@io.com (eldorado) wrote in
news:20080711095437.H29098@fnord.io.com:
What would be wrong with having the oil companies use the forty
million acres of federal land that is already leased to them
Are they not using it?
Correct, in fact the Democratic party is pushing for a "use it or
lose it" bill that would force oil companies to surrender oil and
gas leases on federal land that they are not using.
|
The fact that one political party or another is trying to make an
issue out of something is no indication that the issue is real.
--
Bert Hyman | St. Paul, MN | bert@iphouse.com |
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eldorado
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 2:18 am Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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On Fri, 11 Jul 2008, Bert Hyman wrote:
| Quote: |
eldorado@io.com (eldorado) wrote in
news:20080711143922.I38381@fnord.io.com:
On Fri, 11 Jul 2008, Bert Hyman wrote:
eldorado@io.com (eldorado) wrote in
news:20080711095437.H29098@fnord.io.com:
What would be wrong with having the oil companies use the forty
million acres of federal land that is already leased to them
Are they not using it?
Correct, in fact the Democratic party is pushing for a "use it or
lose it" bill that would force oil companies to surrender oil and
gas leases on federal land that they are not using.
The fact that one political party or another is trying to make an
issue out of something is no indication that the issue is real.
|
Perhaps, but I would urge you to read the findings of the "Committee on
Natural Resources"
http://resourcescommittee.house.gov/images/Documents/hr6251.pdf
and then answer why we should lease even more land to the oil industry.
--
Randomly generated signature
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." --Albert Einstein
** Posted from http://www.teranews.com ** |
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Larry Hewitt
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 6:40 am Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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"John" <dahlgren.john@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:308bee57-e96c-445a-9f2e-77611df94d7e@d45g2000hsc.googlegroups.com...
On Jul 11, 1:01 pm, Bert Hyman <b...@iphouse.com> wrote:
| Quote: |
eldor...@io.com (eldorado) wrote
innews:20080711095437.H29098@fnord.io.com:
What would be wrong with having the oil companies use the forty
million acres of federal land that is already leased to them
Are they not using it?
|
Actualy they are not.
---
Correct.
Oil companies currently hold leases in the Gulf that the EIA estimates hold
40 billion barrels, with 7 billion proven..
The proscribed areas that McCain, Bush, and repugs are after hold an
estimated 18 billion barrels with none proven.
Half of that is off the coast of California, where there is overwhelming
bi-partisan opposition --- even from Schwarzenegger --- to drilling.
This means that the proven reserves already leased in the Gulf and
available for drilling today are equal to the
unproven reserves that McCain wants access to that will take years of
exploratory seismic tests adn exploratory drilling to reach the proven
stage.
McCain is also proposig the federal govenemtn give incentives tothe states
andhte oil companies to drill in the new areas.
Larry
| Quote: |
versus giving the oil companies more land?
You presumably meant "leasing them more land."
--
Bert Hyman | St. Paul, MN | b...@iphouse.com |
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PseuDoeCyAnts
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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on Fri 11 Jul 2008 11:13:08a
cary@afone.as.arizona.edu (Cary Kittrell) posted
in news:g587rk$7tt$1@onion.ccit.arizona.edu:
| Quote: |
(While there is a Phil Gram authored "Enron loophole" that
McBush helped with that, if closed, could shut down speculators,
the drop in oil is estimated to be maybe a quarter or so. That
is, it should be priced about $100 per barrel right now rather
than having run up to $135-140 range. Dropping back to that
level, however, would increase demand and we'd begin climbing
again. I would expect $150 to $180 per barrel in about two years
after the bubble deflates.)
|
No mention of Phil Gramm (note the 2 m's in name)
and ENRON should be without the notice
that Phil's good-wife Wendy had a seat on ENRON's board.
<http://tinyurl.com/63dnbq>
Make the guilty hang,
In the Year of The Boomerang. |
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Wide Eyed in Wonder
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
|
|
On Jul 11, 1:29 pm, Bob LeChevalier <loj...@lojban.org> wrote:
| Quote: |
The_Carpathia <writing...@yahoo.com> wrote:
In this article...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,380324,00.html
...OPEC said that Iran can set an unlimited price in the US for the
price of Gas, since it contributes so much of the world's supply of
oil. This confirms that we MUST get ourselves off our dependence on
foreign oil. While hybrid cars are a step in the right direction,
they will run off of some gas, and it will take many decades to get
the nation converted.
At $20 a gallon, I suspect it would happen REAL quick.
|
Unsupported assumption.
| Quote: |
What will we do in the mean time? The ONLY
solution for removing us from foreign oil is to start drilling in the
US for more oil.
No amount of drilling in the US will remove us from foreign oil.
|
Unsupported Assumption
| Quote: |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
United States proven oil reserves declined to a little less than 21
billion barrels (3.3×109 m3) as of 2006 according to the Energy
Information Administration, a 46% decline from the 39 billion barrels
(6.2×109 m3) it had in 1970 when the huge Alaska North Slope (ANS)
reserves were booked. With production of around 5 million barrels per
day (790×103 m3/d) as of 2006, this represents about an 11 year
supply of oil reserves at current rates of production.
If the United States had to supply its entire demand of 21 million
barrels per day (3.3×106 m3/d) without resorting to foreign imports,
existing US reserves would last only three years at the current rate
of consumption.
Since it would take more than 3 years to get any new explorational
drilling into full production (more like 20), US drilling has no
significant potential to solve the problem.
|
Unsupported assumption. However, it would still be quicker than
sitting on our hands and singing peace to the world.
Kenneth Clifton
christiansuperhero.com |
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Bob LeChevalier
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject: Re: OPEC confirms US is being held hostage by Iran |
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Wide Eyed in Wonder <kands00@hotmail.com> wrote:
| Quote: |
On Jul 11, 1:29 pm, Bob LeChevalier <loj...@lojban.org> wrote:
The_Carpathia <writing...@yahoo.com> wrote:
In this article...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,380324,00.html
...OPEC said that Iran can set an unlimited price in the US for the
price of Gas,
|
OPEC doesn't talk. Perhaps some human said something, probably not in
English, which has been translated and interpreted to mean the above,
but I'll call it "unsupported assumption".
| Quote: |
since it contributes so much of the world's supply of
oil. This confirms that we MUST get ourselves off our dependence on
foreign oil.
|
Unsupported assumption.
| Quote: |
While hybrid cars are a step in the right direction,
|
Unsupported assumption.
| Quote: |
they will run off of some gas, and it will take many decades to get
the nation converted.
|
Unsupported assumption.
Others can play your silly game too loser.
| Quote: |
At $20 a gallon, I suspect it would happen REAL quick.
Unsupported assumption.
|
"suspect != "assume"
thus clearly indicating that it is not claimed as either fact or
assumption. That which I was responding to made no such softening of
its claims, however.
| Quote: |
What will we do in the mean time? The ONLY
solution for removing us from foreign oil is to start drilling in the
US for more oil.
No amount of drilling in the US will remove us from foreign oil.
Unsupported Assumption
|
supported by the following text, which shows that our entire reserves
of oil would last us only 3 years.
| Quote: |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
United States proven oil reserves declined to a little less than 21
billion barrels (3.3×109 m3) as of 2006 according to the Energy
Information Administration, a 46% decline from the 39 billion barrels
(6.2×109 m3) it had in 1970 when the huge Alaska North Slope (ANS)
reserves were booked. With production of around 5 million barrels per
day (790×103 m3/d) as of 2006, this represents about an 11 year
supply of oil reserves at current rates of production.
If the United States had to supply its entire demand of 21 million
barrels per day (3.3×106 m3/d) without resorting to foreign imports,
existing US reserves would last only three years at the current rate
of consumption.
Since it would take more than 3 years to get any new explorational
drilling into full production (more like 20), US drilling has no
significant potential to solve the problem.
Unsupported assumption.
|
There are endless sources on the net for the fact that it takes many
years to turn
| Quote: |
However, it would still be quicker than sitting on our hands and singing peace to the world.
|
Unsupported assumption.
If indeed $20 a gallon gas prices would enable market forces to change
peoples' behavior, then sitting on our hands might be the most
effective solution of all. Worshippers of the free market might
applaud, in any event.
lojbab
Bob LeChevalier - artificial linguist; genealogist
lojbab@lojban.org Lojban language www.lojban.org |
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